US Markets / Big Tech | Week of 5–9 October 2026
The Story
On 8 October the Nasdaq dropped about 1.2% to 27,201, retreating from a record 27,723 set two days earlier. The trigger was a single figure. The Financial Times reported OpenAI’s annualised revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September. Investors had been working with roughly $70 billion.
The gap is mostly bookkeeping. The $70 billion estimate came from backers recalculating revenue using a method that counts sales through cloud marketplaces such as AWS and Google Cloud, which OpenAI excludes. Anthropic’s reported $65 billion at end-July uses the broader method, so the two are not directly comparable. Still, the market had priced in the bigger number.
The damage showed how much of the AI trade rests on one customer’s growth. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.4%. Oracle lost 5.5%, CoreWeave nearly 8%, Broadcom 4.35%, AMD about 4% and Nvidia almost 3%. SoftBank, a large OpenAI holder, fell as much as 7.3% in Tokyo.
Underlying chip demand is not weak. TSMC’s September sales rose 54.6% from a year earlier with record third-quarter revenue, and Samsung flagged a record quarterly profit. But on 13 October memory names slid again (Micron down roughly 4–5%) on reports that China’s CXMT is advancing its DRAM designs, and Broadcom’s CEO said investor expectations had become “extreme.”
The backdrop is less friendly than it was a year ago. The Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00% in September, the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5.2%, and US CPI was forecast to rise to 3.6%. Richly valued AI stocks are more sensitive to any disappointment when yields are this high.
What to Watch Next
- TSMC results (15 October): The cleanest read on whether AI chip demand matches the share prices
- US CPI and PPI (14–15 October): A hot print revives bets on a hike at the 27–28 October FOMC
- Bank earnings: JPMorgan missed on EPS ($5.57 vs ~$5.90 expected) while Goldman beat ($17.01 vs ~$13.02)
- OpenAI and Anthropic funding or listing news: Audited accounts would settle the revenue-method debate
- Fed Chair remarks at the IMF/World Bank meetings
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