The story in one page
On 28 October the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4%, in a 10-2 vote. Both dissenters, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, wanted a quarter-point hike. The yield curve steepened after Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, a sign investors are pricing a longer, firmer path for rates.
Stocks barely flinched on the day. After hours, the same macro backdrop produced very different reactions to Big Tech earnings: Microsoft about +6% (cloud revenue beat), Oracle about +11%, Alphabet about -10%.
The AI trade has stopped being one trade. Markets are separating companies that show AI spending turning into revenue from those where costs and capex are running ahead of visible returns. Bank of America expects roughly $175 billion of investment-grade issuance in November, and Big Tech AI-related debt issuance this year is forecast above $200 billion.
Semiconductors were the bright spot: SK Hynix reported revenue up 328% to about $78.7 billion and operating profit up 632% to about $62.7 billion, lifting Samsung and Micron.
Key data points
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Fed funds target range | 3.75% to 4% (held, 28 Oct) |
| Vote / dissents | 10-2; Cook and Hammack for a 25 bp hike |
| 10-year Treasury yield (27 Oct) | about 4.99% |
| VIX (27 Oct) | 17.52 |
| After hours: MSFT / ORCL / GOOGL | +6% / +11% / -10% |
| BofA November IG issuance forecast | about $175 billion |
The report’s S&P 500 closes differ between sources (7,722.60 and 7,739.58); confirm against the Fed statement and exchange data.
Educational purposes only, not investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Sources: StockTitan live blog (28 Oct), Global Banking and Finance, Yahoo Finance, Tech Insider (as cited in the report).
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