The story in one page
Indian and US investors are looking at very different headlines, but the same two numbers are doing most of the work. The US 10-year yield touched about 5.36% earlier in October and sat near 4.99% on 27 October. Crude is around $100: WTI December futures were about $100 on 27 October, and Brent held above $100 through much of the month.
India: FIIs have sold for ten straight weeks (Rs 51,466 crore in October). The Nifty fell 2.4% in the week to about 22,600, and the Smallcap 100 lost 7.3%. Domestic institutions bought Rs 59,110 crore over the same period. The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% in October.
US: the Fed held at 3.75% to 4% with two members voting for a hike, and the yield curve steepened afterwards. The S&P 500 is near 7,700 on earnings from a narrow group of AI winners.
Key data points
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| US 10-year yield | about 4.99% (27 Oct); peak about 5.36% earlier in October |
| 10-year term premium (NY Fed est.) | about 100 bps early Oct, now about 60 bps |
| Brent / WTI | above $100 / about $100 |
| FII selling streak / October total | 10 weeks / Rs 51,466 crore |
| DII buying, October | Rs 59,110 crore |
| Nifty 50 weekly move | -2.4% (about 22,600) |
| Smallcap 100 weekly move | -7.3% |
| Bernstein Dec-2026 Nifty target | 25,000 (from 26,000) |
Takeaway
Emerging-market flows follow US real yields and the dollar more than domestic earnings. Domestic institutions are the shock absorber in India, and that cushion is the thing to watch. When oil and long-term yields are both high, selectivity matters more than direction.
Educational purposes only, not investment advice. Do your own research before investing.
Sources: Kotak Neo, Free Press Journal, Yahoo Finance, Global Banking and Finance, iTech Guides (as cited in the report; figures may differ across sources).
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